Florida warned to brace for ‘major hurricane’ as Category 3 Ian hits Cuba

Hurricane Ian, the Atlantic's fourth hurricane of 2022, has done its worst over western Cuba on Cat-3 status and could strengthen further before making the season's first US landfall in western Florida Wednesday (September 28).

"Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as a major hurricane," forecasters at the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned in their 09:00 UTC update

Analysts at Guy Carpenter, working from the prior NHC reading, found four prior Florida events worth comparison to suggest "reasonable worse case loss scenarios" in the low single digit billions if Ian follows the modelled path.

At 09:00 UTC Ian was located over western Cuba, about 5 miles (10km) south of Pinar del Rio, after having made Cuban landfall at 08:30 UTC.

Ian brought maximum sustained wind speeds of 125 mph (205 km/h) to the island with hurricane-force winds extending for a 35-mile (55km) radius. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

Ian's centre, moving nearly due north at 12 mph (19 km/h), was said likely to clear Cuba within several hours, then begin to strengthen while heading just west of the Florida Keys.

Expect Florida landfall on the panhandle as Ian "approaches the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night."

That Hurricane warning landfall zone had initially been defined as a nearly 100 mile (160 km) stretch of coast including Tampa/St. Petersburg, but has now been extended for another roughly 60 miles (100km) to the south.

Tropical storm warnings are extended to the Florida Keys, push into southeastern portions of the Florida panhandle and to larger coastal regions north of the warning zone.

Storm surge warnings for Florida rivers run as high as 10 feet near Tampa Bay. Rainfall in central west Florida could run 12 to 16 inches, with local maxima up to 24 inches, forecasters warned. Northeast Florida and the remainder of the central Florida Peninsula could take 5 to 10 inches, with local incidence of up to 12 inches.

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