Hurricane Ian in ‘rapid strengthening’ ahead of Cuba & Florida landfalls

What had still been tagged a disturbance late Friday (September 23) was Cat-X Hurricane Ian by Monday morning, bringing 75 mph (120 km/h) maximum sustained winds north towards Cuba and Florida with expectations of a notable strengthening ahead.

"Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight when it is near western Cuba," forecaster at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in their latest update.

Ian, which began on a westerly course in the southwest corner of the Caribbean, is in the process of veering north, passing near or just west of the Cayman Islands Monday, near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday before making a run near the Florida Keys and then the Florida coast Wednesday. Uncertainty remains high for Ian's later course over a 3-to-5-day outlook.

Warm water temps and low wind shear conditions left forecast with 90% certainty that Ian would add minimum 30 knots of windspeed. Conditions look ripe for Ian to slow when it hits Florida.

"Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of a life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this week," researchers wrote in the 09:00 UCT update.

Beyond the hurricane-force winds, western Cuba could get 6 to 10 inches of rainfall with local maximums hitting even 16 inches. Storm surges could run to 14 feet.

Central west Florida could be in for 8 to 10 inches of rainfall when Ian arrives, with local maximums of 15 inches possible.

Hurricane warnings are now in effect for western Cuba and Grand Cayman. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for much of the west coast of the Florida panhandle, including the Tampa Bay area. Tropical storm warnings and watches cover adjacent regions in both jurisdictions. Storm surge and tide alerts cover large swathes of coast, including f threat o14-foot surges Monday and Tuesday in Cuba.

At 12:00 UTC, Ian was located about 90 miles (150 km) WSW of Grand Cayman or 275 miles (440km) SE of the western tip of Cuba traveling NW at 325 degrees at 14 mph (22 km/h). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). Researchers have last tracked maximum sustained wind speeds of near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

Florida governor Ron DeSantis has placed the entire state under a State of Emergency. US President Joe Biden has declared a state of emergency at the federal level and tasked FEMA with coordination.

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