Re/insurers face up to $35bn losses from major Cat-4 hurricane Ian, early estimates suggest

Major hurricane Ian that made its Florida landfall at Category 4 status near Cayo Costa on Wednesday (September 28) could cost re/insurers up to $35 billion, placing pressure on reinsurance pricing leading into 1.1 renewals. Ian caused heavy damage from storm surge flooding and winds at some 150 mph.

By 05:00 local time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had downgraded Ian to a tropical storm, but was still expected to produce strong winds, heavy rains and storm surge across portions of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas when it turns north up the coast.

Landfall came south of the prior forecast, avoiding a head-on collision with the metropolitan area of Tampa and St. Petersburg, but bringing Fort Myers / Cape Coral closer into its sights.

Early industry loss estimates hit a wide band from $10 to $35 billion, including $20 billion from BMS, a range of $10 to 35 billion from Guy Carpenter and $19 billion from Karen Clark & Co., analysts at Morgan Stanley noted in a morning round-up. Ian's slow-moving nature was widely said to be pumping tallies higher.

For reinsurers, analysts at Wells Fargo assumed that Allstate and Progressive will both tap their programmes while Chubb will get to its $1billion per-occurrence retention threshold and a headline price tag could eventually "place further upward pressure on reinsurance pricing heading into the Jan 1 renewal period."

Ian was eventually downgraded to tropical-storm status, but was still expected to produce strong winds, heavy rains and storm surge across portions of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

Next up: the centre of Ian is expected to move off the east-central coast of Florida later Thursday and then approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday.

While maximum sustained windspeeds have fallen to near 65 mph (100km/h), "Some slight re-intensification is forecast, and Ian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of South Carolina on Friday."

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in north-eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through Friday.

Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is still expected for northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and bits of South Carolina, with local maxima of 12 inches. Further north, NHC forecasters are calling for 3 to 6 inches.

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