Warmer Gulf of Mexico blamed for high levels of severe weather in US

The levels of severe weather that has hit the US Midwest so far this year are more than double their respective 2005-2015 averages, according to the records of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center.

The report showed that, as of March 8, cumulative preliminary tornado, hail, and straight-line wind reports for the year are all more than double their respective 2005-2015 averages.

Some of the severe weather has included: an outbreak of severe convective storms across the Midwest US on Monday March 6 caused widespread damage in Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota, with minor damage reported in Kansas, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wisconsin. At least 700 properties are reported to have been destroyed or damaged so far.

RMS meteorologist Jeff Waters said: “Much of the active season has to do with the warmer-than-average ocean waters in the Gulf of Mexico. These winter sea surface temperatures, averaged over the Gulf of Mexico, were the warmest on record since 1981. This has helped to generate large amounts of warm, moist air to flow onshore and fuel unstable conditions that drive severe activity in mid-latitude weather systems.

"Thus far US severe weather events have caused significant property damage in many parts of the country, but losses have been within expectations of the (re)insurance market as a whole. Nevertheless, it is important for insurers and reinsurers to continue to monitor severe weather activity throughout the year, as their aggregate impacts could pose a more material threat to respective catastrophe budgets and reinsurance programs."