NOAA stands by 2022 hurricane warning, water temps tweak outlook

The North Atlantic remains on track for “above normal” storm activity during the peak hurricane season just started, although recent changes in sea surface temperatures have taken a “slight” edge off of forecasts, researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have said.

“We’ve seen a bit more variability in sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic,” Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster from the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre, said of the “main reason” for the slight tweak to forecasts originally given in late May.

Sea surface temps, a determinant of wind sheer that can support or impede storm formation, had originally been forecast to be above normal throughout the season. A more mixed set of influences blending over storm generation regions now renders a forecast “closer to normal with periods above normal.” Select wind patterns made a lesser contribution to the forecast change.

NOAA now sees a 60% chance of an above-normal season, down from 65% when prior forecasts were issued late May. Chances of a near-normal season went from 25% to 30% and chances for a below-normal season remain at 10%.

By storm count, NOAA only trimmed the top of the 2022 forecast ranges.  NOAA is predicting a named storm count of 14-20 (prior: 14-21), of which 6-10 could evolve into hurricanes (flat vs May), of which 3 to 5 could hit category 3 or higher (prior: 3-6).  Three named storms have already run their course, leaving 11-17 to go.

That largely spells a lower threat than over the past two years, Rosencrans said. “Being a little behind last year isn't so bad; brings us a bit closer to normal.”

Comments come at the outset of what Rosencrans warns could be a ‘busy peak to the season,” a stretch from August through October that traditionally accounts for some 90% of annual Atlantic storm activity.

To date in the broader hurricane season that traditionally starts June 1, the Atlantic has gone through only 3 of the names lined up for the season’s events, a figure close to the historic average. Rosencrans attributed little significance to the YTD track record as a predictor, keeping his eyes solidly focused on the variables leading the peak season.

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