Tropical storm Bret targets Antilles, but showing fewer upside threats

Tropical storm Bret gathered power on its westward march towards the Leeward Islands, triggering tropical storm watches for a string of islands in its path.

Maximum wind speeds have picked up to 60 mph (95 km/h) as of 12:00 UTC as the storm system continued on a westerly course at 16 mph (26 km/h), the latest alert from the US National Hurricane Center said. The storm has a 550 mile (815 km) path towards Barbados.

That had already triggered tropical storm watches for the islands of Barbados, Dominica, Martinique and St. Lucia.

Those portions of the Lesser Antilles are slated to see Bret's centre Thursday afternoon and night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the centre.

“Some increase in strength is possible before Bret reaches the Caribbean Sea,” the NHC said in its 12:00 UTC update.

But fears that Bret could hit hurricane status appear to be abating. The NHC last spoke to chances of hitting hurricane strength in a Tuesday discussion, but now sees Bret back as a tropical depression by early Sunday. The UK government-supported research venture Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) had once seen Bret hitting and holding category 1 status, later cut that to a brief period Thursday and last said, like NHC, that Bret may dither its way back to tropical depression status by early Sunday.

Through Saturday, storm rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches (7.5 to 15 cm) with maximum amounts of 10 inches (25 cm) are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to Grenada, including Barbados, with possible flash flood implications.

Not far behind Bret, a tropical disturbance now in the central tropical Atlantic is seen with ever-increasing chances of becoming tropical storm Cindy: now at a 70% chance for the coming 48 hours and an 80% chance for points within the coming week. A pair of tropical waves and a monsoon trough are also under observation.

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