Tropical storm Bret bears down on Antilles, next system faces challenges

Tropical storm Bret looked set to deliver high winds and rain to the Lesser Antilles, but appeared to have peaked in strength with weakening likely to set in thereafter.

A trailing system, now about half-way to the Antilles on its way from Africa, had already been upgraded to tropical depression with a 90% chance of hitting tropical storm status within 48 hours, although it’s further outlook is mixed.

At 12:00 UTC, Bret was 170 miles (265km) east of Barbados and heading west at 15 mph (24 km/h) and bearing its strongest maximum wind speeds yet approaching 70 mph (110 km/h).

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the centre, especially to the north. Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible.

Bret was last called “near hurricane strength” and “expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain” to portions of the Leeward Islands later today (June 22) and into the night.

“Little change in strength is forecast today while Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles,” analysts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in their latest dispatch.

“Weakening is anticipated to begin tonight or Friday after Bret passes the Lesser Antilles, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by Saturday night,” researchers wrote, citing “a pronounced increase in westerly shear and dry air intrusions.”

A hurricane watch is in effect for St. Lucia, tropical storm warnings in effect for Dominica, St. Lucia and Martinique and a tropical storm watch for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Trailing behind Bret, the next system earned an upgrade to “Tropical Depression Four” already by the 9:00 UTC NHC report, but faces the mixed outlook of storm-supportive warm seas and storm-suppressive wind shear that researchers have said will define the 2023 season.

The system may enjoy "marginally favourable atmospheric conditions" over "warmer-than-normal" ocean temps, but faces challenges thereafter as vertical shear is forecast to "increase significantly." A weakening trend should be underway by 72 hours, the NHC now believes.

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