Seeking one-handed meteorologists: industry grapples with complex storm season

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season—so far—is posing more questions than answers for re/insurers. As things stand, the industry is oscillating between a mixture of relief and caution for what is to come.

On one hand, the season—so far—has proved much milder than expected. On the other, almost every storm that did form made landfall. Where it has made landfall, it has impacted locales with either a low population or recently bolstered resilience. Yet these storms have caused damage far afield from landfall, and in some cases these losses have proved more dire than anyone might have predicted. 

If Harry Truman had worked in insurance, he might have demanded a one-handed meteorologist. 

If you still needed reason to believe that seasonal forecasts for Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane activity can’t capture the whole risk picture, 2024 certainly proves that point. That’s the view that Andrew Siffert, senior vice president and senior meteorologist for broker BMS. But, he warns, the season still has some way to go. 

“The season is not done yet, but it will be one of the biggest busts in terms of forecast seasonal named storm activity,” Siffert told APCIA Today. 

As of October 5, there have been 13 named storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Hurricane Center forecast a range of 17 to 24; Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather & Climate Research department had an initial forecast of 23; and the UK’s Tropical Storm Risk suggested 22. So far, they all seem inaccurately high. The final two months of hurricane season to end-November typically add two or three to the total, he noted.

Landfall severity

“The elephant in the room is that while we’ve had a very normal year in storm counts, it’s a very impactful year in terms of named storm landfalls,” Siffert said. “Almost every hurricane that formed up to the end of September made landfall so it has been a very impactful season thus far.”

Even Hurricane Ernesto, the lone early hurricane to end up on a northeasterly track into the Atlantic, managed a bullseye hit on the 21 square miles of Bermuda. Only Hurricane Gordon truly hit the road to nowhere, trapped in the central Atlantic. 

Most of the actual landfalls proved largely benign. Hurricane Beryl threatened as the earliest forming category 5 event on record and approached the fifth largest US metropolitan area—Houston—but it ended up delivering insured losses in the low single-digit billions. 

Siffert credits the reduced magnitude of the storm in its late stage as well as the insurance industry’s response to previous major events in Houston in the form of either adapted treaties and/or better resilience.

Hurricane Francine headed for New Orleans on a similar trajectory to Hurricane Ida’s, but ran into post-Ida new roofs, new policy terms and improved resilience. “It’s a good case to show how the insurance industry can adapt to a hurricane,” Siffert said.

Hurricanes Debby and Helene both hit the least populated stretch of the Gulf coast which Hurricane Idalia, just one year prior, had already shown to be a largely innocuous path.

Hurricane Helene, it turns out, created different challenges again. Florida’s Big Bend may be a relatively safe place for a category 4 landfall from a wind perspective, but went on to prove that “water may be the new wind”, Siffert noted.

“Redirect Helene closer to Tampa and you might as well rename it Katrina.”

“Water became the driving factor,” he said. “It is definitely not the wind.”

Helene proved fast-moving, driving heavy rains inland to hilly regions where soils had already been saturated by what meteorologists call a “predecessor” rain event. The upshot: the heaviest flood damage and most gruesome headlines were nearly 400 miles inland from landfall. Likewise with storm surge: breathe easy that Helene missed the major Florida metro areas, but Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater and environs still suffered record storm surge flooding.

“It should be a real eye-opener for the insurance industry,” Siffert said. “You have a storm pass 100 miles west of Tampa and make landfall 140 miles north, but Tampa got the record storm surge.” Redirect Helene closer to Tampa and you might as well rename it Katrina as well, Siffert suggested. 

The industry is still on edge—there remains a long way to go. The latest storm, Hurricane Milton, at the time of going to press was forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. It is suggested that it will be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida peninsula mid-week.

According to NOAA, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast.

For more news from the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) click here.

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