Rise of populism a concern in year of elections
The rise of populism in different governments around the world is a key concern for Airmic members in the context of the many elections taking place around the world this year, Sam Wilkin, director of political risk analytics, financial solutions, WTW, noted, speaking at Airmic’s annual conference, being held in Edinburgh this week.
He was speaking in the context of a new report, called Political risk in 2024: the year of elections, which he unveiled at the event.
He noted that geopolitical tensions are at a generational high and 2024 is being widely referred to as the ‘year of elections’. By the end of the year, up to 83 national elections will have been held in over 70 countries, representing 60% of global GDP. The UK’s general election will be held on 4 July, while the US election set for 5 November will be the most consequential of them all.
He notes that elections have one advantage as a trigger for political risk or civil unrest: their dates tend to be marked in the diary weeks or months ahead of the events themselves. This gives organisations the opportunity to plan ahead, prepare and brace for impact.
Airmic launched the Big Question in 2024, marking a new and innovative way in which Airmic surveys its members for their insights on the risk landscape. Even before the UK general election was announced as 4 July, this is the election of most concern for Airmic members in 2024; 81% were negative or neutral on the UK government’s Spring Budget of 2024.
Wilkin also flagged some early election results which might concern some members. In Mexico, for example, he noted that a country always regarded as being very business friendly has started to change key policies, such as around renewable energy, which have the potential to harm international businesses operating from there. He noted that this would become a big problem for some US companies that had “traditionally seen Mexico as their backyard – very business friendly. UK companies have been more wary,” he noted.
In South Africa, where the ruling party the ANC has lost a majority, he said much would now depend on which other parties they form a coalition with. “People can be concerned. Depending on who they partner with, there is a concern around the country starting to go direction of Zimbabwe,” he said.
In Europe, where a number of elections will take place this year, he expects gains for populist parties. A risk here, he said, could come from the mainstream parties making concessions on things like climate policies as they try to keep votes.
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