Risk of terror attacks with chemical agents is increasing, warns Pool Re

The risk of extremist groups using chemical agents has increased dramatically partly due to the military defeat of Daesh in Iraq and Syria forming the group and its ideology move into ungoverned spaces, particularly the dark web, according to a new report release by Pool Re, the UK’s terrorism reinsurance pool.

The report, supplied by Pool Re’s Terrorism Research and Analysis Centre, also notes that the focus of international attention on Daesh has allowed Al Qaeda (AQ) to grow in the shadows. 2017 is highly likely to see the continued expansion of AQ reasserting itself as the dominant global terrorist group with the capabilities, experience and technology to match, it said.

All this also increases the threat. “The increasing use of chemical agents by extremist groups, particularly in the Middle East and parts of Africa, combined with on-line knowledge transfer, raises the probability of their use against Western targets, the report said.

This report, which focuses on key terrorism events and trends between August and December 2016, is intended to inform Pool Re Members and its wider stakeholders of the current and future terrorism threat, and its implications for the resilience of Pool Re’s end customer, UK businesses and, by extension, the national economy.

As well as providing assessments and analysis, Pool Re is also developing sophisticated loss estimation models in collaboration with its external research partners. The current model development is focused on CBRN and the emerging risk of destructive cyber terrorism. Pool Re will publicise the findings of these ongoing projects to industry risk carriers, security specialists within the private sector and Government partners.

Julian Enoizi, chief executive, Pool Re, said: “The terrorist threat to the UK remains SEVERE. This report not only emphasises the level of risk our nation faces, but also the widening spectrum of attack methods to which terrorists have access.

“It also highlights how the terrorism landscape is evolving. The main driver for this threat continues to be Islamist extremism. Despite the probable military defeat of Daesh in Iraq and Syria, its ideology is likely to endure and they will look to increasingly establish themselves in ungoverned spaces such as the dark web, creating a virtual caliphate.

“In tandem with this is the potential reassertion of AQ as the dominant global terrorist group. By enhancing our understanding of these threats which our economy faces and providing a resource to inform risk modelling and management, we can ensure that we are better positioned to resist and respond to them.”

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