Market in transition, claims JLT Re in new renewals report

Increasing claims severity, social inflation and instances of adverse reserve development are now hurting carriers and point to a market in transition, according to a new report by JLT Re called ‘Uncharted Territory at its Market Prospective Event’.

The paper provides an assessment of the 1 January 2019 renewal by closely analysing outcomes by individual lines of business. A more forward-looking view is also conveyed by exploring some of the key drivers that are likely to influence reinsurance pricing and supply over the coming year.

It notes that 1 January 2019 renewal reflected a myriad of competing factors that are currently restraining pricing movements in most business lines. Crucial to this outcome is reinsurers’ overriding desire and ability to underwrite risks.

But it also said that market conditions are nevertheless tightening in some areas as reduced appetite, as well as increasing demand, is being observed for business classes that have suffered sizeable losses or where performance has deteriorated in recent years, including US casualty.

More than $200 billion of insured catastrophe losses in the last 18 months, loss creep from some of these events, moderating insurance-linked securities (ILS) capital inflows and reduced capacity at Lloyd’s are also likely to resonate this year. Historically high levels of excess capital will nevertheless continue to weigh against these dynamics, and this has long been the dominant reinsurance pricing driver.

Ross Howard, executive chairman & Interim Global CEO, JLT Re, said: “The 1 January renewal provides an early glimpse into how the reinsurance market is likely to develop in 2019. Whilst the property market continues to garner the headlines, changing dynamics in the casualty space are shaping up to be a prominent feature of the year. After years of largely favourable conditions that included a benign inflationary environment and historically low loss experiences, increasing claims severity, social inflation and instances of adverse reserve development are now hurting carriers and point to a market in transition.”

David Flandro, global head of analytics, JLT Re, said: “Such a backdrop, coming at a time of macroeconomic transition and capital market volatility, leaves the reinsurance market delicately poised as it enters 2019. With attention already focused on key renewals dates later in the year, it is crucially important for reinsurance buyers to have detailed insights into key market drivers.”

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