Willis Re unveils probabilistic flood model for Indonesia

Willis Re, the reinsurance division of broker Willis Towers Watson, has launched a new flood risk model for Indonesia that it hopes will give insurers an accurate view on the potential losses and increase resilience to catastrophic flooding.

Developed jointly with the Willis Research Network (WRN) partner, National University of Singapore (NUS) Tropical Marine Science Institute (TMSI), the model provides a "comprehensive and robust" assessment of the flood risk countrywide including the industrial estates in West Java which are prone to frequent flooding.

The new model is fully probabilistic based on 42,000 events covering major river catchments in Indonesia. It has been developed using high resolution hydrological and hydraulic models, including a 37 year-record of global rainfall observations and local rain gauge data.

Tai Hui Yen, head of analytics, Asia Pacific, Willis Re, said: “Taking advantage of our in-house expertise and our broader academic partners in the WRN, we have developed a leading-edge flood risk analysis capability. We are integrating the tool with ongoing research projects within the WRN, which continues to explore the influences of climate change on extreme flood. This will help insurers develop innovative solutions with relevant contingency planning that can better prepare and protect businesses and communities, increasing resilience to catastrophic flooding.”

Mark Morley, managing director of Asia Pacific at Willis Re, added: “The combination of climate variability and urban development have amplified the flood risk in Indonesia. This continues to present significant problems for insurers with risks both inside and outside Jakarta. It is crucial to provide the insurance market with a robust and sophisticated model that can help insurers quantify the potential flood risk based on strong and local scientific understanding.

"The new Willis Re Indonesia Flood model allows our clients to have an accurate view on the potential losses so that they can adopt clearer risk appetites, respond to regulatory pressures and make more informed risk transfer decisions on their insurance portfolios.”