UBS says Dorian losses likely to be at mid or lower end of $5-40bn

Insurers’ losses for Hurricane Dorian may come in at about $25 billion, say industry analysts at investment bank UBS.

Dorian, a category five hurricane for several days, has battered the Bahamas, leaving several people dead and destroying thousands of homes. As of Tuesday (September 3) morning, Dorian had fallen in strength to category three, but Grand Bahama island still faces heavy rain, winds and storm surges.

UBS is one of the first investment houses to come up with estimates of the cost to insurers. It gave initial loss estimates in a range of $5 to $40 billion. “We believe the lower to mid end of this range looks more appropriate at this point,” UBS said in a note written on Monday (September 2).

“We suspect (Dorian will be) the most costly hurricane Bahamas has seen,” UBS said.

UBS added: “For the (re)insurers, the key risk is that the storm moves faster than expected before banking north, meaning US East Coast landfall would still be possible.”

The US National Hurricane Center has now described Dorian as “stationary” but it is expected to move north.

Florida, Georgia and North and South Carolina have declared states of emergency. There have been mandatory evacuation orders across many areas.

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