Tropical Storm Risk early Atlantic Hurricane forecast predicts 20% drop in activity

The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) agency is forecasting 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes between the months of June and November in its April forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Commenting on the forecast, Aon said this was “generally unchanged” from TSR’s initial projection of tropical activity released in December 2018.

Projected activity is expected to be 20 per cent below the long-range norm since 1950 and 30 per cent below the 2009-2018 10-year norm.

TSR said projected July-September trade wind speeds in the Caribbean Sea and the tropical North Atlantic Ocean were the main influences on its forecast. Weak-to-moderate El Niño conditions have promoted predictions there will be slightly stronger than normal trade winds, which “tend to lead to increased wind shear and lessened vorticity – or “spin” – that allows cyclogenesis to occur”, Aon explained.

TSR also expects slightly cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic during peak development months of August and September. Aon said: “All of these conditions should cause some suppression to tropical cyclone development during the season and keep numbers at or slightly below normal.”

Aon said: “The precision of hurricane season outlooks in April is often low and forecast uncertainties are amplified due to the unknown status of El Niño and atmospheric/oceanic conditions in the Atlantic in a few months’ time. Forecast skill increases the closer to June 1.”

Probability projections from TSR show there is a 23 per cent probability that the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index will be above-average, a 34 per cent likelihood it will be near-normal, and a 43 per cent chance it will be below-normal.

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