Tropical storm Harvey could turn into hurricane in Texas

Tropical storm Harvey is slowly approaching Texas and could turn into a category 1 hurricane at landfall, data provider RMS said on Aug. 24.

The forecasts still show significant uncertainty about the intensity of Harvey at the time of its expected landfall in Texas, said Tom Sabbatelli, RMS hurricane risk expert.

“The consensus prognosis has alternated daily between it being a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane at landfall,” Sabbatelli added.

Conditions for further intensification are good: sea surface temperatures are high and a warm eddy has broken off from the loop current and is now located along Harvey’s projected path, according to RMS. Harvey is also expected to be in an area of low wind shear, and shear should remain low as it progresses towards Texas.

The likelihood that Harvey will strengthen is near 100 percent, according to the National Hurricane Center, and it is very possible that it will become a hurricane before landfall.

“Despite the uncertainty about Harvey’s wind intensity, it’s expected to move slowly towards Texas,” Sabbatelli said.

“And this slow movement increases the potential for significant rainfall and impactful storm surges – so those will be a focus of any RMS analysis of how Harvey could affect the industry, if it develops into a hurricane.”

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