RMS launches ‘pre-landfall’ hurricane model; product 'forecast Dorian’s Florida swerve'

A new model from RMS has been designed to provide critical insights “pre-landfall” for North Atlantic hurricanes.

RMS said its HWind Forecasting Solution aims to enhance and support proactive event response strategies before a weather system reaches land. It will deliver five-day forecast track scenarios, hazard footprints, and gust probability analytics every 12-hours once a tropical cyclone has been named.

The modellers tested the product against more than 15 historical storms over more than 15 years to ensure a robust forecast. It went went live for hurricane Dorian earlier this season, exhibiting useful insights for the market, particularly when the storm was threatening to make landfall in Florida.

Jeff Waters, senior product manager of RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models, said the product would help the market gain earlier insights into potential hazard and loss impacts before landfall, which will “inform key, time-critical decisions as the event unfolds”.

“Having access to analytics based on real-time data that reflects an accurate range of uncertainty with track scenarios only increases the confidence and reliability in those decisions,” he said.

Mark Powell, founder of HWind and vice president of model development at RMS, said: “Several days before hurricane Dorian’s closest approach to Florida when industry stakeholders were gearing up for an impending landfall, HWind forecasting products demonstrated an increasing probability of the storm sparing Florida and instead recurving to the north.”

The newly launched model is part of the RMS HWind Real-Time Analysis Solution suite.

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