RMS: Hurricane Barry insured losses will not top $500m in US

Insured losses from Hurricane Barry, the second named storm of the 2019 North Atlantic hurricane season, will not top $500 million, global risk modeling and analytics firm RMS has said.

The estimated figure relates to losses associated with wind, storm surge, and inland flood damage, and includes losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

NFIP losses are expected to represent about half of the total insured loss estimate, the modeller said, as Louisiana has the third highest number of NFIP policies-in-force in the US. Many of these policies cover areas hit by storm surge or inland flooding caused by Barry.

To simulate the runoff, river discharge, and consequent flood inundation across the affected region, RMS fed observed rainfall accumulations into its US Inland Flood High Definition Model .

Insured losses from property damage and business interruption from wind, storm surge-driven coastal flooding, are included in the total estimate, as well as inland flooding to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business. Storm surge losses include the impact of coverage leakage, an escalation in claims severity for wind-only policies in instances where wind and water hazards co-exist for residential lines of business.

Jeff Waters, senior product manager of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models, said wind and storm surge-driven losses are expected to be in line with those projected prior to landfall. “The storm made landfall in Louisiana as a weak Category 1 hurricane, then quickly weakened due to its vulnerable structure. Sustained hurricane-force winds were only experienced along a small portion of the southern Louisiana coastline.”

Colleague, Holly Widen, product manager at Global Climate, RMS, said: “Although, at first, Barry did not seem to generate the forecasted severe rainfall, it ended up producing more than 23 inches in southwest Louisiana and 13 to 14 inches in portions of Mississippi and Arkansas; the latter of which is now the fifth state to set a new tropical storm rainfall record in the past two years.

“The heavy rainfall resulted in flooding across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, albeit in less populated areas. Thus, flood-driven losses are now expected to be lower than initially anticipated.”

Barry came ashore on Saturday, July 13 near Intercoastal City, Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/hr). Barry was the first hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana since Hurricane Nate in 2017.

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