Olympics without spectators to cost reinsurers up to $400m — but could have been worse

Reinsurance losses from the Tokyo Olympics are likely to be around $300 million to 400 million, according to  Fitch. However, this is only 10 to 15 percent of the amount reinsurers would have faced had the Olympics been cancelled.

Fitch report warns that cancellation of the Olympics would have led to the largest ever insured losses from a single event, adding to pressure on reinsurers’ earnings from the pandemic and US casualty reserve deficiencies, following several years of high natural catastrophe losses.

The total insurance cover for the Olympics is estimated to be about $2.5 billion, comprising $1.4 billion taken out by the International Olympic Committee and the Tokyo Organising Committee, $800 million by broadcasters and $300 million by other parties, such as sports teams, sponsors and hospitality.

Analysts at Fitch believe that reinsurers would bear most of the losses arising from this cover given that high-severity exposures are typically heavily reinsured.

Most of these losses would arise from Japan’s decision to bar spectators from the Olympics due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which would cost reinsurers up to $400 million due to payouts for ticket and hospitality refunds. However, it noted that this is just a fraction of losses reinsurers would have faced if the event was completely cancelled.

With the Olympics now set to go ahead, but without spectators, reinsurance payouts should be mostly limited to losses from ticket sales and hospitality. These losses should not materially affect earnings, particularly given the reserves that reinsurers had already set aside in anticipation of potential losses.

"The pandemic has led insurers and reinsurers to rethink some of the cover they provide and how they price it," said Fitch. "In the past, they may have considered cancellation risks for different events to be mostly uncorrelated. However, the pandemic has highlighted how mass cancellations can happen simultaneously due to a single trigger, with even mega events, such as the Olympics, potentially at risk.

"To assess the insurability of risks, and to price accurately for them, insurers and reinsurers need to factor in correlation such as this, as well as the potential for extra-large aggregated losses when correlated risks crystallise together."

Fitch noted that the pandemic has led the insurance market to generally stop offering cover for losses resulting from communicable diseases, although cover for event cancellation due to other causes is still available as before. "We believe cyber risk could give rise to the next widespread catastrophe losses triggered by a single event, which could lead insurers and reinsurers to rethink the cyber cover they provide," it said.

Renewed insurance policies for event cancellation now exclude cover for losses due to communicable diseases, which should shield insurers and reinsurers from losses resulting from further lockdowns to fight the coronavirus pandemic or future pandemics. "However, event cancellation policies are typically multi-year, so it will take time for the existing risk exposures to run off," it added.

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