Lessons learned from Mexico earthquakes

“We are committed to making sure that we learn from large events, like the September 19 earthquake that struck Mexico.”

These are the words of Justin Moresco, senior product manager for RMS earthquake models, who spoke to FIDES Today.

RMS sent a reconnaissance team of engineers to the country after the earthquake. The catastrophe risk modeller also sent teams to Ecuador in 2016 and Chile in 2010, following large earthquakes.

The idea, according to Moresco, is to engage with the broader earthquake science and engineering communities “to make sure RMS understands what lessons have been learned that can be incorporated into future model updates”.

Currently, RMS is in the initial stages of work on updating its South America earthquake models.

“The updated models will incorporate advances in the way we predict how strong shaking is at locations following an earthquake, and improvements in the way we model building vulnerability.

“Earthquake science and engineering have made important advances in recent years, and it’s exciting to be part of an effort to include these advances in future models for the South America insurance industry,” said Moresco.

The causes and effects of the damage and loss from the September earthquake will be a topic of study for coming months and years among the earthquake science and engineering communities, he explained.

The September catastrophe was less destructive than the 1985 earthquake, partly because of the destruction that took place in 1985.

Following the 1985 event, a more stringent building code for Mexico City was introduced in 1987. The majority of heavily damaged buildings in Mexico City from the 2017 earthquake were constructed before the new code.

Some people say earthquakes have “a cleansing effect” on poorly built buildings.

“If 1985 had never happened, those same vulnerable buildings may have collapsed or been severely damaged in 2017,” added Moresco.

The 1985 earthquake was also larger (moment magnitude 8), releasing nearly 30 times more energy than the 2017 earthquake.

Insured losses from the 2017 catastrophe are not expected to exceed $1.2 billion, while economic shake losses will be between $4 billion and $8 billion.

“If earthquake insurance penetration were higher in Mexico, then insured losses would have been higher for the 2017 earthquake. But I don’t think it’s fair to draw conclusions about there being a problem, or not, of low insurance penetration in Mexico based on insured losses from an event,” Moresco concluded.

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