Karen Clark & Co’s latest US hurricane model receives official Florida approval

Karen Clark & Company’s (KCC) US Hurricane Reference Model Version 3.0 has been certified by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM).

Version 3.0 of the model incorporates additional high resolution claims data with which to validate the vulnerability functions and other scientific advancements. As a three-peril model it allows hurricane winds, coastal flooding from storm surge, and precipitation-driven inland flooding to be accurately quantified for individual events.

The certification follows on the heels of the KCC US Flood Model certification last December.

Daniel Ward, KCC senior atmospheric scientist, noted the record-breaking frequency and severity of North Atlantic hurricanes over the last three years. “The average annual frequency of landfalling hurricanes along the entire coastline has been nearly double the long term average, and in 2018 Florida experienced another category five hurricane,” he said.

“In total, three of the four landfalling category five hurricanes in the historical record have made landfall in Florida, and this most recent data has been incorporated into the KCC Hurricane Model Version 3.0.”

Filmon Habte, KCC senior wind engineer, said: “Detailed analyses on the new data have informed refinements to the model assumptions with respect to regional vulnerability, wind mitigation measures, and secondary characteristics. The combined hazard and vulnerability module enhancements resulted in an increase in Florida insured loss potential of eight percent for residential properties.”

Glen Daraskevich, KCC senior vice president, emphasised the rigour of the certification process, which includes a comprehensive audit by a professional team of experts in meteorology, statistics, engineering, actuarial science, and computer science.

“While a challenging endeavor, KCC scientists are dedicated to keeping the KCC models current with respect to scientific and engineering principles, the evolving climate, and data from the most recent events,” he added.

The FCHLPM was established in 1995 to review the soundness of hurricane model methodology and loss output. Certification by the FCHLPM is required for insurers to use a hurricane model for residential ratemaking in Florida.

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