Insured losses from Typhoon Hagibis losses ‘between $8bn and $16bn’ says AIR Worldwide

Cat risk modelling firm AIR Worldwide has estimated that industry insured losses from Typhoon Hagibis will be between $8 billion (JPY865 billion) and $16 billion (JPY1,730 billion), with more than half of the losses due to inland flooding.

The typhoon, which made landfall in Japan on October 12, had one-minute sustained wind speeds of about 145km/h (90mph), equal to a category 1 hurricane. It struck the main Japanese island of Honshu near Shizuoka on the Izu Peninsula, bringing high winds and record-breaking rainfall to a large area of Honshu from Mie Prefecture in the west to Iwate in the north. A storm surge raised sea levels by more than one metre above mean sea level along parts of the coast.

A level 5 special warning, the highest level, for heavy rain was issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

A large area of Honshu just outside the Tokyo metro area received between 250mm and 500+mm of rain, while the resort town of Hakone was hit by 939.5mm of rain, breaking rainfall record for Japan on that date.

Hakone’s rainfall represents the second-heaviest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded in Japan, when 635mm fell in just 12 hours.

AIR Worldwide said that many regions received between 30 percent and 40 percent of their yearly rainfall in just two days, with more than 100 weather stations breaking daily rainfall records at those locations.

As a result of the unprecedented rainfall in Honshu, numerous rivers the Abukuma, Arakawa, Chikuma, Kuji, Naka, Shinano, Tone, and Watarase rivers among them experienced severe and devastating flooding.

AIR Worldwide said that much of central and eastern Japan experienced severe flooding and landslides; power outages and travel disruption were widespread.

The intense rainfall in a short time period meant that much of the floodwater had a high mud content and included a large amount of debris. AIR Worldwide said this could potentially increase the costs of repair and cleanup and drive up business interruption losses, especially for commercial and industrial properties.

Hagibis affected some of the same region damaged by Typhoon Faxai a few weeks earlier. Additional damage caused by Hagibis to properties that were damaged by Faxai but were not repaired would further complicate claims settlements.