Insured loss estimates for Hurricane Dorian reach $5bn for US and Carribean, says cat modeller KCC

Catastrophe modelling firm Karen Clark & Company (KCC) has estimated that the total insured loss from Hurricane Dorian in the US and Caribbean will be close to $5 billion.

This figure breaks down to $3.2 billion insured losses in the Bahamas, which was hardest hit by Dorian, $1.5 billion in the US, where it “grazed” the North Carolina coastline, $84 million in the US Virgin Islands, and $23 million in Puerto Rico.

For the US, the loss estimate includes privately insured wind and storm surge damage to residential, commercial, and industrial properties and automobiles. It does not include NFIP losses. For the Caribbean, the estimate covers insured losses for commercial, residential, and industrial properties but does not include automobiles.

KCC highlighted the prolonged Category 5 Hurricane wind speeds that affected the Carribean islands Abaco and Grand Bahama islands causing major damage and loss of life. Its report said that as Dorian moved across the Caribbean Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands were also affected by low-level wind damage occurred.

“Abaco experienced Hurricane Dorian at its peak intensity, with wind speeds of 185 mph winds and a storm surge of up to 20 feet. The most impacted area on Abaco was Marsh Harbour, where the storm made landfall on the island. Due to high winds and damaging storm surge, a near total loss of property is expected for Marsh Harbour and the surrounding communities,” the report said.

“Dorian also brought 185 mph winds to Grand Bahama Island, but its track turned northward before it reached Freeport, the most populated area on the island. As a result, Freeport experienced sustained wind speeds closer to 120 mph with higher gusts. Much of downtown Freeport was flooded along with the airport. Areas near or inside Dorian’s eyewall sustained damage from wind and storm surge.”

KCC added that New Providence, which has the biggest population of the Bahama islands and is home to the capital city of Nassau, was impacted by tropical storm force winds. “In addition to low-level wind damage, widespread flooding was reported from a combination of 6 to 10 inches of rainfall and storm surge between one and three feet.”

The south east of the US experienced widespread low-level wind damage as tropical storm force winds impacted Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. Hurricane force winds were only experienced in coastal areas of North and South Carolina.

KCC’s report said: “Storm surge up to seven feet had been forecast for Charleston and did not manifest. While there was still some significant flooding in the city, it was not as severe as initially feared. The most severe storm surge, with heights as high as seven feet, were on the Outer Banks of North Carolina near where Dorian made landfall. On Ocracoke Island, southwest of the landfall point, the first floors of residential and commercial buildings were flooded.”

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