Hurricane redux: Atlantic poised to deliver 2021-style hurricane season

The Atlantic Hurricane season will likely run plays from the 2021 gamebook, rendering 16 to 20 named storms, including six to eight hurricanes of which three to five could hit major event Category 3 status, AccuWeather said of its seasonal forecasts. About four to six direct US impacts are likely.

Expect “an above-normal season in terms of tropical activity in the Atlantic, as well as a higher-than-normal chance that a major hurricane could make landfall in the mainland United States, Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands,” forecasters said.

The named storm tallies, should events bear out forecasts, would beat the 30-year average 14 per year. Forecasts are in line with the 30-year average of seven hurricanes per year.

The forecasts are also “nearly identical” to the 2021 record of 21 named storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The most comparable precedents include 2021, 2012 and 2001.

It could start early, ahead of the official June 1 kick-off date. AccuWeather sees not only a high storm count, but also a “high chance for a preseason storm to develop.”

Judged by the meteorological metric of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), the season is forecast in a range of 120-150, where 123 is the normalized average, 2021 came in at 145, well below 2020's 182.

La Niña remains a key factor. Colder than average Pacific water temperatures can adjust wind shear and remove one potential hindrance to tropical storm formation, the AccuWeather team noted. Those surface temperatures will be closely watched for possible change in the storm outlook, forecasters noted.

The Atlantic has not been merciful. The past two hurricane seasons have been “extraordinarily active,” with meteorologists running out of designated storm names both years.