England will beat Brazil to win FIFA World Cup 2022, predicts Lloyd’s model

England has been touted to win the 2022 FIFA World Cup – with France, Argentina and Spain falling just behind, according to  Lloyd’s market model that bases its prediction on the collective insurable value of players. The same model correctly predicted Germany as winners in 2014 and France in 2018.

Insurance and reinsurance marketplace Lloyd’s of London has predicted that Gareth Southgate’s side will beat Brazil in the World Cup final that is scheduled to take place in Qatar from November 20 to December 18.

According to an analysis backed by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), which ranks the teams based on the collective insurable value of their players comprising a variety of metrics such as wages, sponsorships, age and on-field position, England's team will have an estimated insurable value of £3.17 billion.

England will edge out France (£2.66 billion) and Brazil (£2.56 billion) to claim the top spot. Analysts also highlighted that by way of overall comparison, the average insurable value of one England or France player is more than the entire Costa Rica squad.

Group B, which contains England, USA, Wales, and Iran, is said to be the strongest group in terms of insurable value, amounting to a cumulative £3.9 billion.

Using this methodology to play out the tournament in full, Lloyd’s model sees the Three Lions finish top of Group B, before securing knock-out wins against Senegal, France, Spain and Brazil.

England’s Jude Bellingham is rated the “most insurable player” at the FIFA World Cup, followed by France’s Kylian Mbappé and Brazil’s Vinícius Júnior.

Lloyd’s said the research was designed to emphasise the need for athletes at all levels and in all sports to consider their insurance protection packages and coverage.

Bruce Carnegie-Brown, Lloyd’s chairman, said: “Insurance can play a key role in building confidence and resilience, knowing you’re covered if the worst happens.

“As Lloyd’s goes for the hat-trick of correct World Cup predictions, we’re shining a spotlight on the need for protection at all levels of the game – professional and amateur – to help clubs, competitors and communities make braver decisions both on and off the pitch.”

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