COVID-19 may lead to resurgence in biological terrorism: Pool Re

The global COVID-19 pandemic may lead to a resurgence in interest among terrorists for using chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons, suggests a new report by UK's Pool Re and Cranfield University.

The report reveals that the pandemic is having a significant impact on terrorism around the world. Although the lockdown measures will tend to inhibit attacks, terrorist propaganda calling for attacks while the authorities are distracted will incite some incidents.

According to Pool Re, propaganda particularly connected to far-right extremism is focusing on conspiracy theories connected to COVID-19 and has already inspired plots and attacks. It added that Islamist extremist propaganda is focusing more on the vulnerability of government opponents distracted by the pandemic.

The report also noted that there is a significant increase in online extremist activity.

“The pandemic is likely to have a mixed impact on terrorism trends in the short term. While lockdown measures may represent obstacles to terrorists to carry out real-world attacks, many terrorist groups have also flagged that the pandemic has left government and security resources being severely stretched," said Andrew Silke, Pool Re and Cranfield University’s professor of terrorism, risk and resilience. “As a result, the ability of government, intelligence and law enforcement agencies to focus on traditional priorities such as counterterrorism has been undermined.”

Silke added: “One genuine concern is that COVID-19 may lead to a resurgence in interest among terrorists for using chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons. Historically, a range of terrorist movements have been interested in bioterrorism though there have been very few successful attacks by terrorists using biological weapons.  While serious obstacles certainly remain, the huge impact of COVID-19 may re-ignite some interest in biological weapons.”

Pool Re’s chief resilience officer, Ed Butler said: “This report is very timely and worth digesting at a time when we are quite rightly focussed on the near-term issues and human and economic devastation being caused by this global pandemic. However, Pool Re’s core purpose remains the provision of terrorism reinsurance and we need to continue to understand the contemporary terrorist threats as well as horizon scan the future landscape.  Pool Re’s strategic relationship with Cranfield University underpins the importance we attach to collaborating with academia in understanding and mitigating against catastrophic perils.”