Coronavirus deaths in China estimated at 3,000-7,500 – AIR Worldwide

The number of moderately symptomatic cases of coronavirus in China on February 18 could range between 70,000 and 165,000, according to risk modelling company AIR. It said the number of severe cases in China on February 18 could range between 35,000 and 85,000, with deaths ranging from 3,000 to 7,500. The vast majority of coronavirus cases will be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, according to projections from the AIR Pandemic Model.

“For context, it is important to note that tens of millions to hundreds of millions of people contract the flu in China in any given year,” said AIR in a release. “Globally, hundreds of thousands of people die from flu-related complications. The risk of death varies by age, healthcare received, presence of comorbidities, and many other factors. Influenza infection shares many similarities with coronavirus infections, although coronavirus belongs to a different family of viruses. Flu infections often have milder symptoms than the virus causing this current outbreak of COVID-19, MERS, or SARS.”

AIR’s model-based estimates account for uncertainty and underreporting. Mild to moderate symptoms are the types of cases most likely to not be captured in the official numbers, but even for severe cases and deaths it is likely that there will be significant underreporting.

“The current modelled projection does not suggest substantial transmission of the disease outside China in the coming weeks,” said AIR.

The difference between the low and high end of the range of the estimate is driven by a few factors, AIR said. Uncertainty in the reported number of confirmed cases and the transmissibility of the virus play a significant role.

“Specifically, the lower end of the range represents a scenario where the true number of cases is relatively closer to what has been reported than estimated, and the possibility that containment measures become more successful than they have been to date,” said AIR. “If such containment measures—driven by international and/or local authorities—are successful, this could restrict the human-to-human transmission sufficiently to bring the eventual number of cases to or even below the low end of the modeled projected range of cases.”

AIR added that in countries with robust healthcare systems, any imported cases would most likely be contained with few or no transmissions to additional people—provided that cases are rapidly identified and appropriate infection control protocols are followed.