California mudslides losses will reach tens of millions

The extraordinary mudslides that hit California after torrential rains could result in an economic loss of more than $100 million and insured losses of tens of millions of dollars, according to Impact Forecasting, part of Aon Benfield.

A weekly catastrophe report produced by the division attempted to explain why the mudslides had happened.

It said a strong Pacific storm system came ashore into California on January 8-9 leading to substantial rainfall amounts across northern and southern sections of the state. Heavy snow accumulations were also noted in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

In advance of the storm’s arrival, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issued a rare High Risk of excessive rainfall for Southern California. In its forecast, the agency stressed that the risk of “significant slides of mud, rock, and debris” was assumed as a “near certainty” in areas near the recent Thomas and La Tuna wildfires, it said.

The precipitation also fell across areas which had received no meaningful rainfall since the current water year began on October 1, 2017. On top of this, several of these same areas had seen major scarring in the aftermath of historic wildfires during last October and December; leaving some spots very vulnerable to mudslides and debris flows.

The excessive rainfall led to major mudslides, including in Montecito and Carpinteria as victims described a “wall of water” rushing down hillsides. The rainfall – which led to some of the highest calendar-day rainfall totals since 2014 around San Francisco – was too much for very dry soils to absorb. Additionally, given that the typical chaparral cover was burned away, this meant there was very little, if any, vegetation available to absorb the moisture.

At least 17 people were killed by the massive debris flow that struck Montecito while a further 300 were trapped in their homes, primarily in the Romero Canyon neighbourhood, overnight from January 8-9. Officials reported that more than 25 others were additionally injured.

At the peak of the event, more than 20,000 customers were without electricity and even more residents were without drinking water. The Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management warned residents that utility services could be offline for “a while”.

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