August unlikely to hit forecast for ‘above normal’ Atlantic activity: CSU

The 2022 hurricane season may be set for "above-normal" hurricane activity, but August may end a mere "normal" or below after an all-out false-start, officials at the Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather & Climate Research department have said.

"We believe that the next two weeks have the highest probability to be characterized by activity at normal levels," officials said in a two-week outlook to complement their latest seasonal forecast given early August.

CSU gives a 70% chance of a normal level of activity for the second half of August, which it defines as accumulated cyclone energy levels between 7 and 21. CSU splits the remaining odds 50-50 between above- and below-normal readings.

"This period typically marks the real ramp-up for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity," authors noted of H2 August. The primary source of threats comes from the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

Eyes are most pinned on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a moving pattern of atmospheric variability over the east Atlantic said to create supportive conditions for storm systems, is currently considered “weak,” but is “forecast to potentially amplify” over the coming two week. Researchers are also watching a system over Guatemala that was said to have a 30% chance of any real development once over the Gulf.

CSU lightly overshot on their forecast for the first half of August, having given a 50% probability to 'normal' activity levels (measured as 2-5 accumulated cyclone energy) and a 40% chance of below normal levels. In the event, early August rendered a flat zero.

When CSU last read the tea leaves, the Atlantic hurricane season was said likely to deliver a full 18 named storms in 2022 and a total of eight hurricanes, of which four could hit category 3 or higher.

Those readings were a light decline on the prior forecast, but still qualified as an "above normal" season in the works.

Counting three named storms to date, CSU said it expects 18 named storms for the full season (June forecast: 20, April: 19) spread across 85 days (95, 90). The group said it expected eight hurricanes (10, 9) including four major hurricanes of category three or higher (5, 4).

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