Atlantic renders weaker than usual punch at hurricane season start

Heading into peak hurricane season, the North Atlantic has yet to deliver even a small fraction of its usual storm activity, kindling hopes against the prevailing odds of an above-normal hurricane season.

The Atlantic hasn't mustered a named storm since the season's #3, Colin, sputtered through its meagre 24-hour existence on July 2. Colin brought the named day count this year to 3.25, just over a quarter the 30-year average for the period through mid-August.

Measured by total cyclone energy, the season is just over one fifth the 30-year average through August 15. Readings have been at a record low for the full satellite era.

That makes August look "historically quiet," comparable to only two out of the last thirty years where the Atlantic basin couldn't muster a named storm between July 3rd and August 8th, BMS senior meteorologist and SVP Andrew Siffert noted.

If nothing gets named through August 18th, the Atlantic basin will set a 30-year record for quiet.

The count sounds "astounding" when taken against the prevailing forecasts for above-normal activity levels this year, well-grounded on abnormal La Nina conditions.

Both the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather & Climate Research department are calling for "above-normal" activity in 2022, although both have recently given fractional downgrades to their warnings.

The basic ingredients for an above-normal storm season remain in place, chiefly warmer water temps in the tropical Atlantic, CSU analysts wrote, but subtropical Atlantic waters have "anomalously cooled," holding out hope that wind shear conditions may subvert more early storm systems.

BMS's Siffert adds abnormally dry air to the mix of mitigating ingredients, suggesting that infant storm systems have lost their muscle upon drawing in dry air.

CSU trimmed its forecast for 2022 named storms to an above-average 18 for the season. A major hurricane landfall on the US continental coastline now has a 68% probability, down from a 76% estimate issued in June or 71% in April, but still above the 52% long-term average.

It's too early to tell, all would agree. August through October traditionally accounts for some 90% of annual Atlantic storm activity, NOAA meteorologists noted early August in presenting their latest updates. Some 80% of US landfalls occur in the next eight weeks, Siffert noted.

But every stormless day might still brighten the outlook a bit, Siffert hinted, quoting data suggesting that slow-start seasons are somewhat less likely to make the major reversal.

While stand-out late bloomer seasons like 1998, 1999, and 2019 still bring insurance-industry nightmares, "there are plenty of years that turn into duds," Siffert.

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