Atlantic Hurricanes may pack a punch; 71% shot at major US landfall

The Atlantic Hurricane season has a 71% chance of battering US coastlines with at least one major hurricane landfall, a key research institute has claimed.

“We anticipate that the 2022 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity,” authors of an annual study by the Colorado State University's Tropical Weather & Climate Research department wrote in their inaugural 2022 forecast.

A total of 19 named storms will top the 30-year average of 14.4, according to the central forecast. Of the sum, 9 should qualify as hurricanes versus a 30-year average of 7. Four will be major hurricanes. Adjusted for one standard-deviation uncertainty, CSU puts the named storm count in a range of 16 to 23, the hurricane count in a range of 7 to 12 and the major hurricane count in a range of 2 to 6.

The chance of major hurricane landfall anywhere on the US continental coastline is a full 71%, above the 52% rate noted over the past century.  That breaks down to a 47% chance for landfall of a major hurricane on the US east coast including the Florida peninsula (31% average over past century) and a 46% chance on the gulf coast including the Florida Panhandle (30 average).

The CSU model is based on five statistical forecasting schemes, averaged and then adjusted for factors not explicitly covered in any of the base models.

“All five of our schemes call for above-average Atlantic hurricane activity this year,” authors wrote. The CSU final forecast is “slightly below” the rendered average and calls for an “above-normal season, due to both anticipated neutral ENSO or weak La Niña conditions as well as anticipated anomalously warm SSTs in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (August–October).”

A lead factor, water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, have shown a “weak La Niña event” of below average temperatures, indicative of storm-supportive conditions.  Authors cite forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggesting a 45% chance of La Niña for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The forecast is the earliest of the CSU forecasts and is subject to revision June 2 as the season opens.

Per the CSU technical bottom line: “Information obtained through March 2022 indicates that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity above the 1991–2020 average. We estimate that 2022 will have 9 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 19 named storms (average is 14.4), 90 named storm days (average is 69.4), 35 hurricane days (average is 27.0), 4 major (Category 3-4- 5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and 9 major hurricane days (average is 7.4). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 135 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2022 to be approximately 130 percent of their long-term averages.”

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