AIR Worldwide updates Caribbean catastrophe models

Catastrophe risk modeling firm  AIR Worldwide has updated its tropical cyclone and earthquake models for the Caribbean to help re/insurers accurately assess catastrophic risks across 29 countries and territories in the region.

The tropical cyclone model for the Caribbean now includes support for additional lines of business such as large industrial facilities, infrastructure, marine lines, a detailed view of the temporal and spatial variation of vulnerability, and high-resolution damage functions that can estimate losses even when not all the building characteristics are known. While the updated earthquake model will account for newly added sub-perils for tsunami inundation and liquefaction risk.

Jayanta Guin, executive vice president and chief research officer, AIR Worldwide, said: “The past several years have reaffirmed the vulnerability of the Caribbean to tropical cyclones and earthquakes. Hurricanes Maria and Irma (2017), Hurricane Dorian (2019), and the 2010 earthquake in Haiti devastated the countries they impacted, and the January 2020 earthquake in Puerto Rico was a more recent reminder of Caribbean seismic risk. Working with local experts, AIR has been able to make innovative advancements in modeling and promote resilience in the region after observing firsthand the devastation left after significant hurricanes and earthquakes.”

Guin added: “Recent paleoseismological studies, marine surveys, and GPS data have provided new insights into seismicity in the region that inform a significantly updated fault model. These new fault data along with a more comprehensive understanding of the tectonics of the Caribbean region overall allow researchers to better identify faults that may rupture in multi-segment ruptures.”