AIR maps areas of coronavirus risk

While China has imposed dramatic containment procedures to limit the spread of coronavirus in the province of Hubei (where Wuhan is located), outbreaks in Italy and Iran show a type of pattern that can be expected in other countries, according to risk modelling company AIR Worldwide.

First is a cluster of severe cases, generally among elderly people, and then as contacts are examined, there is a sharp rise in confirmed cases over the next few days.

“This pattern corresponds to the detection of a previously hidden chain of infection in the country, with cases that are largely asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic,” said AIR.

To evaluate the potential of cases in other countries, AIR used its pandemic model to run hypothetical scenarios. In these scenarios, it simulated the spread of disease based on the latest reported number of cases in the countries outside China with the highest number of cases—South Korea, Italy, and Iran with 2033, 650, and 245 reported cases, respectively, as of February 28.

“What we observed in these countries was an abrupt rise in the reported number of severe cases, which implies the existence of clusters before public health officials became aware of them,” said AIR.

“The prime assumption in these scenarios is that by the time a country starts to act against the further transmission of diseases, cases have already been exported to other countries. Air travel enables large numbers of people to travel internationally quickly. Based on the daily pattern of travel between airports, we can develop a list of countries with a higher probability of having imported cases from the source countries.”

AIR’s analysis of risks associated with the current outbreaks in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, highlights the countries at highest risk for onward infections from these secondary outbreaks. The outbreak in Italy, for example, poses the most risk to Germany, the United Kingdom, Spain, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, the United States and Romania.
“As we expected, for each country that we examined, its neighbouring countries have a higher probability of transmission compared to the rest of the world,” said AIR. “And since these countries are in different regions of the world, the probability of direct or indirect transmission of the disease to additional regions is more probable.”

AIR added that its mapping of the risk shows the importance of models in providing insights to public health officials, re/insurance companies, and corporations to help them make informed decisions about the current epidemic of novel coronavirus.

“We expect to see this pattern of transmission repeat across the globe in coming days,” said AIR. “During situations when there are limited resources available, such analyses can help with prioritising the allocation of resources to regions and prevent the further spread of the disease.”