AIG expects up to $800m cat loss in Q4

American International Group (AIG) is expecting natural catastrophes to cost the insurer between $750 and $800 million pre-tax in the fourth quarter of 2018, CEO Brian Duperreault said during a Dec. 5 Goldman Sachs US Financial Services Conference.

“On California wildfires reinsurance will respond to a single event and will add between a $150 and $175 million net pre-tax losses because of the attachment of our aggregate cover,” Duperreault said.

“Additionally, Validus pre-tax wildfire losses are expected to be around $60 million,” he added.

Moody’s estimates total insured losses from the Camp and Woolsey wildfires in California for property and casualty (P&C) re/insurers at $10-$15 billion.

In addition to the wildfire losses, cat losses in AIG’s general insurance unit from hurricane Michael are trending up toward the top end of the guidance previously issued by AIG, Duperreault said.

In October 2018, AIG estimated pre-tax losses from hurricane Michael, net of reinsurance, at approximately $300 to $500 million, which were to be included in the fourth quarter 2018 operating results.

For the third quarter of 2018, the insurer reported a net loss of $1.3 billion compared to a net loss of $1.7 billion in the prior-year quarter. It mainly blamed pre-tax catastrophe losses of $1.6 billion for the results.

The company’s general insurance unit made an underwriting loss of $1.7 billion in the third quarter, although this was an improvement on the third quarter of 2017 when it made an underwriting loss of $3.89 billion.

Duperreault expects the general insurance unit to enter 2019 “at a slight underwriting profit,” and the net earned premium for 2019 is expected to be consistent with 2018 levels.