44% increase in number of tropical cyclones forecast in Asia: Guy Carp

The number of tropical cyclones forecast to form between April 1 and September 30 is above normal, according to reinsurance broker  Guy Carpenter’s annual briefing on the 2021 Western North Pacific Basic Tropical Cyclone season.

Near- to above-normal activity is consistent with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions which follow a weak to moderate La Niña year.

However, on a region-by-region basis, the number of forecast tropical cyclone landfalls across East Asia varies significantly, with below-normal figures forecast for Japan and Korea, above normal for East China, South China, Taiwan and Vietnam, and near normal for the Philippines (see Table 1).

The report predicts that the number of tropical cyclone formations for the six-month period from April 1 to September 30 is approximately 19.5. This is an increase of approximately 44 percent compared to the 1980-2020 six-month average of 13.5.

Of the predicted formations, fewer than 9.9 are expected to make landfall, which is marginally below the 1980-2020 average of approximately 10.8.

Jeremy Waite, Asia Pacific Catastrophe Advisory Group Lead, Guy Carpenter, said: “The predictions suggest that the region will experience a very active tropical cyclone season. However, the number of storms forecast to make landfall is expected to be slightly below the long-term average, although the exact location of these landfalls remains uncertain. By generating these forecasts, we are providing our clients with critical information that will enable them to plan for potentially significant insured and economic losses.”

Karl Jones, Head of Global Strategic Advisory Team in Asia Pacific, Guy Carpenter, added: “Tropical cyclone risk is a key area of focus for our clients, and we have seen significant impact from such events across Asia in recent years. Guy Carpenter is committed to enhancing our tools and insight across the region, particularly in quantifying the impacts and uncertainty from climate change.”

The briefing is produced by Guy Carpenter in partnership with the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) at the School of Energy and Environment in the City University of Hong Kong. The forecasts for tropical cyclone formations and landfalls are generated using an East Asia climate model.

Did you get value from this story?  Sign up to our free daily newsletters and get stories like this sent straight to your inbox.