Horizon-scanning: how risk managers see the future
The term ‘horizon scanning’ has been adopted in organisations as a label for forward-looking activity. This is particularly relevant to risk managers, Keith Smith, senior risk consultant, Barnett Waddingham, told a press conference at Airmic’s annual conference, called Tomorrow’s Risks Today, which is being held in Edinburgh this week (June 3-5).
He was launching a new guide for risk managers called Horizon Scanning: A Practical Guide helping to develop insight and manage uncertainty. “It is a new process on the table for risk managers so they can contribute at a senior level in organisations,” he said.
Horizon scanning for organisational development purposes is research that looks forward at possible events in time, with an emphasis on the medium to long term. Just as objects on the earthly horizon are unclear and lack visible detail, so are many events we may see when we look forward, he noted.
This simple analogy is so powerful that the term ‘horizon scanning’ has been adopted in organisations as a label for this forward-looking activity. Organisations are always looking at future events but when using the term horizon scanning, the emphasis of the research is towards the medium and long term.
Looking forward to understand the challenges and opportunities that may arise in any organisation’s future is difficult. Still, it is a feature of good planning and increasingly an expectation of stakeholders and regulators under good governance rules.
Developing this future view is often called developing ‘foresight’, and horizon scanning, in the organisational use of the term, is the action part of an organisation’s process of looking forward and informing that foresight view, Smith explained.
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