E&S casualty pricing hits inflection point; property still ‘supportive’

Casualty pricing may be taking off in E&S channels as admitted markets balk at more and more lines of business.

“We are seeing an acceleration in pricing across an increasing number of classes,” the president of Ryan Specialty, Tim Turner, told his company's Q1 earnings call. 

“Casualty will be a strong contributor for our 2024 performance,” CEO and founder Patrick Ryan said to summarise his litany of woes affecting admitted market casualty lines. 

The company sees a “significant increase” in flows into E&S channels as admitted markets ponder those factors which had led to higher loss trends and reserve chatter, Turner said, calling out transport and habitational lines. 

Property, in turn, is a mixed set of signals but will be a “very strong driver” for Ryan in 2024, Turner insisted. 

Ryan sees “some pricing stabilization after years of large increases” across the industry, but warns that things get trickier and less homogenous in E&S, tempered perhaps by “a bit more competition” from the London market.  

“What we are seeing in non-admitted is more volatility, more difficult risks being layered” leading to “opportunities throughout the market.” Q2 wind season looks like a “growth opportunity this year.” 

Ryan Specialty swears off any hint of E&S slowdown that might have seemed visible in recent monthly or even quarterly data prints from major US stamping offices. 

“It's still very strong double digit flow growth,” Turner said, dismissing “misleading” signals in high-frequency data.

That growth pattern won't abate soon as a rising portion of ever more complex risks seek better solutions, officials said in reiteration of their long-standing mantra. 

“We continue to believe the E&S market will consistently outpace growth in the admitted market, overshadowing any cyclical shifts in certain lines with respect to submission flow and pricing,” the CEO said. 

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