Lloyd’s predicts France will win World Cup

Specialist re/insurance market Lloyd’s has predicted that France will win the 2018 FIFA World cup based on insurable value.

In collaboration with the Centre for Economic and Business Research (Cebr), the research showed the collective value of all teams in this year’s tournament is estimated at £13.1 billion.

France (£1.4bn), England (£1.17bn), Brazil (£1.1bn) have the three most expensive teams in terms of insurable value. Furthermore, the average insurable value of one England player is more than the entire Panama squad.

The analysis showed that Group G - comprised of Belgium, England, Panama and Tunisia - has the highest insurable value at over £2.3 billion.

Colombia, Japan, Poland and Senegal make up Group H, or the ‘Group of Death’, battling it out in the knockout stage - with just £26.5 million separating the three teams in terms of valuation. Lloyd’s suggest it will be the most competitive in the tournament.

Based on these value and having plotted the teams’ paths all the way to the final, Lloyd’s predicts that France will be the winners of this year’s World Cup.

And this is not the first time Lloyd’s has predicted the winners of the World Cup.

In 2014, similar analysis was undertaken by Lloyd’s and Cebr ahead of the 2014 FIFA World Cup which correctly predicted that Germany would be victorious.

The research also showed that forward are the most valuable players - with their legs being worth £19.2 million on average. Midfielders have the largest share of total squad insurable value (38 percent), and player aged between 18-24 years old have on average the highest insurable value at £20 million.

Cebr used players’ wages and endorsement incomes, alongside a collection of additional indicators, to construct an economic model which estimates players’ incomes until retirement.

“Our model correctly predicted the winner of the 2014 FIFA World Cup so we wanted to put it to the test once again. The analysis makes interesting reading for football fans who are preparing for the most popular and widely viewed sporting event in the world,” said Victoria De’Ath, Lloyd’s class of business.

“The contrast between the teams at the top and bottom in terms of insurable value is staggering, with the top six national teams worth more than the other 26 combined. We can’t wait to see if some teams can defy the odds and make it through, and if the favourites can prove their worth.”

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