Hagibis losses estimated between $7bn and $11bn

Insured losses stemming from Typhoon Hagibis in Japan will be between $7 billion and $11 billion, according to catastrophe risk modelling company RMS.

This estimate includes property damage and business interruption caused by typhoon wind and typhoon flood to residential, commercial, industrial, marine, and automobile lines, and includes both the private and kyosai/mutual markets.

Additional factors for post-event loss amplification and non-modelled losses include demand surge and claims inflation impacts associated with overlapping of areas impacted by the recent Typhoon Faxai, and widespread damage to infrastructure.

The industry loss estimate is informed based on analysis of the RMS reconstructed wind field and flood footprint using the RMS Japan Typhoon HD model. In addition, the estimate includes additional factors based on data and insights from field reconnaissance by RMS modelers.

RMS said that the circumstances of this event–chiefly, Typhoon Faxai hitting one month earlier and the ensuing widespread flooding–make Hagibis a complex event to model. Three RMS teams surveyed affected areas over two weeks to better understand this event. Field reconnaissance provided factual details about the geographical extent and severity of hazard and impact that could not be ascertained readily through photographs of the damage circulated in the media.

While last month’s Typhoon Faxai was a wind-driven event, RMS estimates typhoon flooding from Hagibis contributes significantly to the overall losses in the event, approaching 60 percent of the total insured loss. RMS estimated the insured loss from Faxai to be between $5 billion and $9 billion.

Margaret Joseph, senior product manager of the RMS Japan Typhoon Model, said: “The combined losses from the two recent storms, Typhoon Hagibis and Typhoon Faxai, could rival insured losses from Typhoon Jebi that struck Japan last year.”

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