Florence weakens but could linger for longer
Hurricane Florence has weakened to a Category 2 storm as it approaches landfall in the US – but it is very slow moving and could linger the coastline bringing catastrophic flooding and heavy losses to insurers.
Risk modelling company RMS noted that its slowdown will be very significant to the damage it causes and the losses it generates and acknowledges that this differs from the original predictions of its track.
“No hurricane landfall forecast is simple. But looking back at the forecast tracks for Hurricane Florence from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the ensemble members of the leading global forecast models a couple of days ago, what stood out was how relatively straightforward they were,” RMS said.
“Florence was anticipated to make a steady, assured progress directly towards the Carolinas, make landfall, and move directly inland.
“In a somewhat remarkable turn of events that few, if any, models predicted 48 hours ago, Florence is now expected to stall over, or very near to, the Carolina coastline.”
It explained that the shift in the forecast guidance was the anticipated result of a reduction in Florence’s steering flow due to two competing areas of high pressure. The hurricane is currently being steered across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean towards the southeastern US around the southeastern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered northeast of Bermuda.
As the system approaches land, it will come under increasing influence from a competing mid-level ridge that is forecast to begin building over the east-central US.
“The net result of these competing steering flows will see Florence slow, meander, or even become stationary for possibly 48 hours before the system moves ashore.
“This possibility could bring prolonged hurricane-force winds and storm surge throughout Saturday and Sunday, to coastal areas along North and South Carolina, and significant inland flooding to whole region,” RMS said.
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